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Projects: Projects for Investigator
Reference Number	NIA_NGTO040
Title	Zero-2050: South Wales (Whole system analysis)
Status	Completed
Energy Categories	Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Energy system analysis) 90%; Other Cross-Cutting Technologies or Research(Environmental, social and economic impacts) 10%;
Research Types	Applied Research and Development 100%
Science and Technology Fields	ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY (Electrical and Electronic Engineering) 100%
UKERC Cross Cutting Characterisation	Systems Analysis related to energy R&D (Other Systems Analysis) 90%; Sociological economical and environmental impact of energy 10%;
Principal Investigator	Project Contact No email address given Wales and West Utilities
Award Type	Network Innovation Allowance
Funding Source	Ofgem
Start Date	01 November 2019
End Date	31 July 2021
Duration	ENA months
Total Grant Value	£1,288,150
Industrial Sectors	Power
Region	Wales
Programme	Network Innovation Allowance
Investigators	Principal Investigator	Project Contact , Wales and West Utilities (99.998%)
	Other Investigator	Project Contact , Western Power Distribution (0.001%) Project Contact , Wales and West Utilities (99.998%) Project Contact , National Grid Electricity Transmission (0.001%)
	Industrial Collaborator	Project Contact , National Grid Electricity Transmission (0.000%)
Web Site	https://smarter.energynetworks.org/projects/NIA_NGTO040
Objectives	Considering there are multiple technical options to meet the net-zero goal, the first step would be to consolidate the options and shortlist a reasonable number of scenarios based on wider stakeholder consultation backed with evidences and analysis. All the scenarios will be designed by including extensive regional insights and making use of the data available from previous projects from Welsh Government, CCC, National Grid future energy scenario (FES), WPD regional FES, WWU regional FES, Pathfinder and Green city vision will serve as the background information for this project. A further project led by WPD with WWU will develop the necessary data for distribution scenarios.A multi-energy vector modelling exercise will be carried out to estimate the impact on utilities networks for different scenarios. The modelling and analysis will include the energy needs and technology mix to address the decarbonisation of South Wales cities, transport and industries. A holistic solution will be designed, which optimally meets the future energy needs of different sectors. Several sensitivities will be considered around the scenarios and Innovative solutions will also be explored to create value to the consumers.The alignment of work packages, technical review, programme management and challenge will be undertaken by a project board consisting of all project managers. Additionally, a project integration team will be responsible for reviewing the project outcomes and providing direction to produce the final solution.Ultimately, the project will propose a roadmap and recommend an initial pathway to decarbonise South Wales supported by solid analytical work and taking in to account the regional socio-economic aspects. The project has the following work-packages (WPs):Work Package 1: Generation and regional analysisA demand estimation study will be carried out to cover the South Wales region based on the demand data coming from other work-packages. Both embedded and non-embedded generation profiles and their potential for South-Wales will be estimated, including the effect of weather data.The UK will be divided into regions and the regional understanding will be developed to assess the impact on South Wales in terms of import / export of energy during extreme weather days. Based on the outcome, it will inform the amount of flexibility requirements including seasonal storage for security of energy supply.Work-Package 2: Temporal and spatial city modellingA detailed bottom-up model will be developed for Swansea, Newport and Cardiff cities. For each scenario, the energy demand of a city, will be estimated to address the impact of decarbonisation of heat, power and transport.Work Package 3: Electrical network reinforcement requirement and cost-benefit analysisThis work package will evaluate the technologies that might be required to meet net-zero targets. It will estimate network solutions for various scenarios. This work package also includes the cost-benefit analysis of various innovative solutions e.g. district heating, clustering of loads and direct connection to HV networks and smart charging. Cost-benefit analysis will also cover Utility-scale storage options including both electrical storage and hydrogen.Work Package 4: South Wales transport sector decarbonisationThis work-package will cover evidence-based transport sector decarbonisation needs. It will include heavy good vehicles (HGVs), marine, aviation and railways sectors. It will estimate the future electricity, gas and hydrogen requirements of the transport sector.Work Package 5: Industrial cluster decarbonisationSouth Wales industries will be categorised based on energy usage, industry type and size and at least one industry will be selected from each category. A detailed evaluation will be carried out to assess the options to decarbonise those industries e.g. fuel switching, technology changes, and carbon capture. The findings will be presented to and agreed with the South Wales industrial cluster. The analysis derived from sample industries will be extrapolated to cover South Wales. The output of this work package will provide the industrial electricity and gas requirements to meet the net-zero ambition and how the profile is expected to change over time. It will also inform the minimum carbon capture, usage and storage (CCUS) requirements to meet net-zero targets.Work package 6: Socio-economic analysisThis work-package is to understand the socio-economic aspects of decarbonisation pathways for the South Wales region. It will start by undertaking baseline analysis of the current context e.g. employment, GDP, industries, demographics etc. It will present the cost of doing nothing by reviewing national and international reports on the cost of climate inaction (from the Stern Review onwards) to determine the potential for extrapolation to South Wales. A high-level analysis of the socioeconomic impacts of up to three decarbonisation scenarios will be undertaken.Work package 7: Iterative optimisation and pathway designTaking the outputs from all of the work packages, this work package will take the multiple scenarios to build and test scenarios and enable the development of an optimised solution for whole system modelling.Work package 8: Communication and stakeholder managementThis work-package will be responsible for managing various stakeholders and consortium partners, designing a proper communication channel, managing information sharing platform, organizing dissemination workshops and producing content.Work package 9: Gas network reinforcement including for HydrogenWP9 will consider the future requirements of gas networks in South Wales considering a range of decarbonisation scenarios. WP9 has three main focuses including the need for a decarbonised hydrogen supply network, CO2 gathering network, and liaison with other work packages to better understand the requirements on the gas networks considering decarbonising heat, industry and transport in South Wales.Work package 10: Carbon Capture and StorageTechno-economic assessment of CO2 capture for smaller emitters. Comprising assessment of emissions, potential for aggregation of sources (including scope for clustering, addressing metering and quality issues), cost estimation for localised carbon capture and outline of carbon capture and transport infrastructure. Further development of costing for carbon transport infrastructure. Further work is required to confirm no duplication with existing work packages or other projects to mitigate the risk of duplication. No costs are included in the PEA for the work.Work Package 11: Pathfinder modellingWP11 will use the WWUs Pathfinder tool to integrate the findings of all the project Work Packages in order to identify a system-wide optimal solution for a Net Zero South Wales. To bring diverse stakeholder (utilities, industry, academia, SME, consultants, Government, regional experts etc.) views together, adopt a whole system view andtechnology neutral perspective, critically review and challenge the options, quantify them with facts and analysis, and then design a pathway to meet South Wales net-zero target which delivers the best value to consumers.
Abstract	The most efficient way to meet “Net Zero” target is a whole system design approach and cross-sector collaboration. Zero-2050: South Wales will bring diverse stakeholder groups (utilities, industry, academia, SME, consultants, Government, regional experts etc.) together to design a pathway to address decarbonisation needs of the South Wales region. A multi-energy vector modelling exercise will be carried out to estimate the impact on utilities networks for different scenarios.The project will recommend a pathway to decarbonise South Wales supported by solid analytical work and taking in to account the regional socio-economic aspects.
Publications	(none)
Final Report	(none)
Added to Database	08/11/22